我国华南3月份降水异常的可能影响因子分析   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

李宏毅  林朝晖  宋燕  陈红  许建玉 《大气科学》2013,37(3):719-730

利用1951～2005年华南地区3月份的降水资料、NOAA海温资料、Ni?o3.4指数和NCEP再分析资料,分析了华南3月份降水异常与同期环流场、全球海温场的关系,从环流和海温的角度揭示了华南3月份降水异常的可能原因。结果表明,当华南3月份降水偏多(少)时,在对流层中低层,北太平洋海区存在气旋(反气旋)性环流异常,西太平洋及南海海面上存在反气旋(气旋)性环流异常,这样的环流异常有利(不利)于东南暖湿气流与北方东部异常冷空气在华南地区形成水汽辐合,导致降水显著增多(减少)。进一步的分析表明,ENSO和北印度洋及南海附近海温是影响华南3月份降水异常的重要外强迫因子,ENSO对华南3月降水异常的影响是通过影响春季西太平洋副热带高压和低层风场异常实现的,而北印度洋及南海附近海温对华南3月降水异常的影响则是通过垂直环流场异常和低层风场以及西太平洋副热带高压异常来实现的。  相似文献   

东亚冬季风气候变异和机理以及平流层过程的影响   总被引：19，自引：5，他引：14  

陈文  魏科  王林  周群 《大气科学》2013,37(2):425-438

本文综述了近几年来关于东亚冬季风变异特征和机理方面的研究,特别对平流层过程对东亚冬季风和气候异常的可能影响作了回顾和进一步分析.东亚冬季风的变异除了季风强弱变化外,还有东亚冬季风的路径变化;研究表明,前者往往对应全国气温一致的变化,而后者可以引起我国气温的南北反相振荡,并导致东亚冬季风变异存在南北两个子系统.此外,进入本世纪后,东亚冬季风的建立推迟,并且东亚冬季风在盛期明显减弱,但冬季风活动在早春比以往要更为活跃,这些变化与冬季气温南北反相变化也有密切的联系.进一步的分析揭示出东亚气温的南北反相变化是东亚冬季风变异的主要模态之一,而且它与平流层极涡强度密切相关.当异常的平流层极涡向下传播时,可以引起对流层低层北极涛动(AO)的异常以及西伯利亚高压的异常,并在东亚地区出现南北反相的温度变化.有关东亚冬季风变异的成因研究表明,上世纪70年代中后期以后,热带厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的影响变弱,而中高纬的北太平洋涛动(NPO)和乌拉尔地区阻塞强度的影响显著增强,相关研究还揭示了这些变化的原因.此外,东亚冬季风在1987年以后的持续减弱主要与准定常行星波活动年代际变化有关,行星波活动通过波流相互作用可以影响AO以及西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压,从而导致冬季风异常.最后,本文还讨论了太阳活动11年周期变化对东亚冬季气候异常的可能影响和过程.  相似文献   

Recent trends in winter temperature extremes in eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

陈尚锋  陈文  魏科 《大气科学进展》2013,30(6):1712-1724

Interannual variations in the number of winter extreme warm and cold days over eastern China （EC） and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using an updated temperature dataset comprising 542 Chinese stations during the period 1961- 2011. Results showed that the number of winter extreme warm （cold） days across EC experienced a significant increase （decrease） around the mid-1980s, which could be attributed to interdecadal variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon （EAWM）. Probability distribution functions （PDFs） of winter temperature extremes in different phases of the AO and ENSO were estimated based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution theory. Correlation analysis and the PDF technique consistently demonstrated that interannual variation of winter extreme cold days in the northern part of EC （NEC） is closely linked to the AO, while it is most strongly related to the ENSO in the southern part （SEC）. However, the number of winter extreme warm days across EC has little correlation with both AO and ENSO. Furthermore, results indicated that, whether before or after the mid-1980s shift, a significant connection existed between winter extreme cold days in NEC and the AO. However, a significant connection between winter extreme cold days in SEC and the ENSO was only found after the mid-1980s shift. These results highlight the different roles of the AO and ENSO in influencing winter temperature extremes in different parts of EC and in different periods, thus providing important clues for improving short-term climate prediction for winter temperature extremes.  相似文献   

印度洋dipole事件的年际变化与ENSO事件的联系     

刘琳于卫东  刘玉国 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(3):50-55

通过对nino3指数和DMI序列的分析，发现两种物理现象都有4a左右的主要周期，而且印度洋偶极子事件还存在有2a左右的振荡周期，而厄尔尼诺事件在2a时间尺度上周期性不明显；对nino3指数和DMI进行年际时间尺度滤波，结果表明，在年际时间尺度上，两者的相关性比未滤波时有了一定的提高；对年际滤波之后的偶极子事件和ELNINO事件的相关分析可以发现，ELNINO对于印度洋偶极子事件的影响要大于IOD对于太平洋ENSO事件，显示了两者物理现象的影响不对称。  相似文献   

R134a理想朗肯循环性能计算及分析     

杨传祖  陈旭  陈献瑜 《广东海洋大学学报》1997,(1)

根据国外最新实验资料，经过理论分析和计算机绘图，给出了R134a的制冷及热泵理想朗肯循环性能计算的公式及结果，以及压力比、单位制冷量及热力性能系数对蒸发温度和冷凝温度的关系曲线图，并对其进行了分析。可供设计和研究采用这种工质的制冷设备和热泵时参考。  相似文献   

Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years: Connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Houjie Wang  Zuosheng Yang  Yoshiki Saito  J. Paul Liu  Xiaoxia Sun   《Global and Planetary Change》2006,50(3-4):212-225

The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.  相似文献   

Long-period variations of sea-level in Australasia     

J. I. Pariwono  J. A. T. Bye  G. W. Lennon 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,87(1):43-54

Summary. The ability of the Australian sea-level monitoring network is assessed in the investigation of long-period sea-level signals. Through the character of coastal long waves, seasonal variations in level and inter-annual level anomalies, the importance of the south coast of the Continent is identified as a coherent indicator of large-scale marine and atmospheric teleconnections. The source of the sea-level signal is investigated by the tracing of progressive features, by the numerical modelling of wind stress over the Southern Ocean, by the modelling of the effect of monsoonal rains over the Indian Ocean and the mass transport through the Indonesian Strait. These features are related to the ENSO cycle which for the first time is linked, inter alia , with Southern Ocean mechanisms.  相似文献   

Value of Climate Forecasts for Adjusting Farming Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa     

Abigail?Amissah-ArthurEmail author 《GeoJournal》2005,62(1-2):181-189

Sustaining and increasing crop production and productivity has to be a major policy thrust for developing countries. Using a simulation approach different production strategies were evaluated conditioned on climate information to derive optimal strategies to help farmers reduce risk and increase productivity. By examining the existence of options in this case planting dates the study provides an analyses of the expected value and risks associated with changing decisions based on the availability of climate forecasts. The 15-March planting date produced the highest mean yield for the two cultivars examined although 1-April, 15-April and 1-May plantings had one to zero probability of crop failures compared to 15-March with crop failures in 4 out of 20 years. Results indicate losses of between 25 and 35 kg/day due to delays in planting from 15-March planting to 1-June planting for the 120- and 150-day cultivar. El niño years were associated with positive yield deviations for both cultivars and most planting dates. Farmers are known to make tactical adjustments to their management in light of information perceived relevant to the prospects of forthcoming crop. Although in its present form most current forecast products do not provide information on onset of the rainfall, however the information they do provide could play a crucial role in helping farmers reduce the risks posed by climatic variability.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool     

Linda K. Ayliffe  Michael I. Bird  Michael K. Gagan  Peter J. Isdale  Heather Scott-Gagan  Bruce Parker  David Griffin  Michael Nongkas  Malcolm T. McCulloch 《Continental Shelf Research》2004,24(19):2343-2356

A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977–1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5–1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982–1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean–atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian–Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by 1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.  相似文献   

南海、孟加拉湾不对称环流变化对2009年西南特大秋旱的影响   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

艾永智  金少华  郑建萌  周泓 《热带气象学报》2012,28(4):594-602

利用NCEP再分析资料及我国160站降水资料,分析了2009年秋季东亚中、低纬环流特征和水汽输送特征及其对西南干旱的影响。同时讨论了秋季不同ENSO状态下东亚地区水汽输送差异,并与2009年进行比较。结果表明:孟加拉湾(简称孟湾)和南海之间环流形势在2009年秋季发生不对称变化,造成两地上空气压梯度减小,孟湾和南海上空分别出现一个反气旋式和气旋式距平环流中心,我国西南至中南半岛处于两距平环流中心之间偏北距平风控制之下,使得进入我国的西南气流异常减弱。水汽输送随之出现变化,南海南部季风低压水汽环流圈异常偏强,孟湾和南海水汽主体经中南半岛重回南海而未进入我国,最终造成我国西南降水异常偏少,出现干旱。这段时间内,西南地区上空出现异常下沉运动,对流活动受到抑制,加剧了干旱程度。在El Ni o年,我国西南及江南地区秋季水汽通量比La Ni a年明显增大,西北及华北则减少。2009年秋季我国的降水分布及南海一带水汽输送特征与普通El Ni o年特征不符,甚至出现相反状态,经对2009年秋季东亚El Ni o影响特征作简单模拟还原和分析,认为上述差异可能与El Ni o反气旋环流影响位置偏北有关。  相似文献